A case for relegation?

Nearly every year, SB Nation's Bill Connelly does something on relegation: The idea that lower tier (read: non-power conference or FCS) college football teams could move up into power conferences based on merit.

(PLEASE SUSPEND ALL THINKING ABOUT CURRENT POWER CONFERENCE SCHOOLS NOT PERFORMING UP THE THE LEVEL OF FUNDING FROM CONFERENCE PAYOUTS VOLUNTARILY GIVING UP THEIR SPOT ON THE GOLDEN TEAT)

(THIS IS KNOWN AS THE PURDUE RULE)

Connelly does an effective job with advanced metrics showing how it would work, and importantly, why it would work. Regretfully, many college football fans don't believe in things like advanced metrics or science, because, ya know, OMGPOLLRANKINGSROCK.

Now, Massey paints a picture using polls showing that this could work. You can see how the Massey composite works here.

There is nothing that jumps off the page to me. The higher ranked team nearly always wins. The bigger the disparity in the rankings, the more likely it is the higher ranked team wins. The one thing that stood out to me is that teams ranked 71-115 (designated as Below Average, Bad, or Very Bad in the Massey article) performed nearly the same against FCS teams, around an 85% winning rate.

As an AD at a place like Wake Forest (somewhere around 100), that's got to give you pause about paying a team like Charleston Southern to come to Winston-Salem, when you can schedule Georgia State (firmly below 115) for a home and home, get to play in a good recruiting area, and also statistically have the same chance of winning.

And for those that say 'even a terrible FCS team nearly always beats an FCS school....

Awful Teams (ranked 116+) vs Opponent Team Types

 

Opponent Team Type	W-L	Pct		H	R	N		APF	APA		DW	SW	MW	NW	NL	ML	SL	DL
Elite (ranked 1-5)	0-20	.000		0-4	0-16	0-0		5.8	53.1		-	-	-	-	-	.050	.050	.900
Very Good (ranked 6-15)	0-28	.000		0-6	0-22	0-0		7.9	49.5		-	-	-	-	.036	-	.143	.821
Good (ranked 16-30)	0-58	.000		0-16	0-40	0-2		10.4	50.2		-	-	-	-	.034	.034	.034	.897
Above Average (ranked 31-50)	0-109	.000		0-53	0-55	0-1		13.6	43.1		-	-	-	-	.092	.156	.183	.569
Average (ranked 51-70)	2-151	.013		2-67	0-82	0-2		16.5	39.9		-	-	-	.013	.150	.190	.203	.444
Below Average (ranked 71-90)	5-142	.034		4-60	1-82	0-0		17.1	38.1		-	-	.007	.027	.177	.177	.211	.401
Bad (ranked 91-105)	14-127	.099		12-63	2-63	0-1		19.1	33.5		-	.007	.021	.071	.305	.199	.156	.241
Very Bad (ranked 106-115)	23-85	.213		14-34	9-51	0-0		24.2	31.7		.028	.009	.037	.139	.398	.167	.111	.111
Awful (ranked 116+)	39-39	.500		22-16	16-22	1-1		28.4	28.4		-	.154	.115	.231	.231	.115	.154	-
FCS (unranked)	29-22	.569		29-21	0-1	0-0		30.1	24.9		.118	.137	.118	.196	.255	.059	.078	.039
All FBS Opponents	83-759	.099		54-319	28-433	1-7		17.8	38.1		.004	.017	.020	.058	.197	.154	.160	.390
All Opponents	112-781	.125		83-340	28-434	1-7		18.5	37.4		.010	.024	.026	.066	.200	.149	.156	.370

Yes, you are reading that right, teams ranked 116+ lose to FCS teams over 40% of the time. Of course, when you aren't winning but 22% of the games against teams ranked higher than 115, I guess that looks good.
TW

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UGA Hoops: "Playing the AAU Game"

By Paul Westerdawg

I've seen rhetoric on the message boards that we're losing in basketball because UGA won't let Mark Fox "play the AAU game."  The insinuation is that we're too ethical to win in hoops.  I'm here to tell you that is a rhetorical crutch as asinine as Georgia Tech saying they can't win in football because they don't pay players.

Tech loses in football primarily because they have shitty coaches. When they had George O'Leary, Ralph Freidgen (Super Bowl OC), Bill O'Brien (future Super Bowl OC/HC at PSU), Ted Roof (future MNC DC), David Kelly (lights out recruiter) and Lance Thompson (lights out recruiter), they won games. Yes, they had help academically from their admin, but they also had coaches and talent.  They lose now because they have none of those things.

"Put that coffee down."

UGA is losing now primarily because of Mark Fox's recruiting incompetence.  Not because of our ethics, our academics, or our financial support for basketball.  The idea that we're not "playing the AAU game" is silly given that every kid we have played AAU ball.

We aren't recruiting well because we have a staff full of introverts, a head coach who doesn't pound the pavement and a strategy that doesn't make sense or hang together in a coherent manner.

Mark Fox doesn't know how to close Tier 1 blue chip players.  He has signed one Top 50 player in his entire career and that was KCP.  He never signed one at Nevada, and he's never been on a staff at a high major as an assistant to recruit those kids.  Yet he pursues them early in the signing period and frequently dismisses quality Tier 2 guys because he's trying for Tier 1 guys.  Then because he has pursued guys he had NO CHANCE of signing he has to fall back all the way to Tier 3 and 4 guys at the last minute to fill the roster.

Then he compounds the problem because he takes panic signees. That means he doesn't have the scholarship wiggle room to string a quality Plan B guy along.

In other cases, he has cornered the market on a player no one else was pursuing months ahead of their senior year while more highly thought of guys were ignored.  But let's focus on his inability to avoid coming in third or worse at the last minute.

Lack of Strategy/Self-Awareness in Action
Tony Parker was an elite blue chip big man a few years ago.  Fox wasn't described by Parker as going balls to the wall for his signature until October before the early signing period. At that point, we were behind Kansas, UCLA, Duke, UConn and Memphis.  At that point, Charles Mitchell was still obtainable as a center.

Fox pursued Parker until signing day ultimately coming in 3rd (at best) to UCLA.  Mitchell has started virtually every game of his career at Maryland and at is exactly the type of player the team needs at center.

Strategically, that's a bad use of your time and it shows a lack of self-awareness.  Why were you not going balls to the wall since the kid's freshman year when it was obvious he was a blue chipper?  Why were you trying to overtake Duke, Kansas, UCLA, Memphis, etc after the November signing period?  In what la-la land has UGA started from behind against that group and then made up the ground to finish on top?

The AAU Circuit is Important 
As we've said here previously, Korey McCray has a masters in education from FSU and an undergrad degree from Mercer.  He has ~13 years of coaching experience including six at the Div I level, one year in JUCO, and the rest coaching AAU ball.  He is not some street agent masquerading as an AAU coach with his hand out.  His father is also the founder of one of the top AAU programs in the country (Atlanta Celtics).  He had known the kids we desperately needed since the 7th grade or earlier.  Fox could have had him if he had made it a priority, and our recruiting might be on a different planet.  Instead, he went to UCLA, and now he's at LSU.

Hiring Korey wouldn't have been unethical or dirty.  Heck, Andy Landers hired Tasha Humphries' mom as a coach to secure her signature and arguably save his job. Vince Dooley created a women's track program to sign Herschel Walker's older sister to a scholarship.  You do what it takes within the rules to win.

It's not only Korey that could save us. There are many guys out there with established relationships with the elite AAU programs of this state. Charlton Young is another such person who doesn't work in Athens.

From an SEC recruiting standpoint, Mark Fox is out of his depth.

The fact is that we have at least five kids on the roster right now who aren't high major talents. Those five kids (who's names I'm not going to list in the public domain) would struggle to start for most Southern Conference or Ohio Valley Conference squads. You can't win in the SEC with roughly 40% of your roster being made up of of kids where you were clearly in the wrong living rooms during the recruiting process.

Those kids aren't on the roster because Fox is too ethical.  It's because his approach to bringing talent to the Athens simply isn't working.

See Also:
-- Georgia Basketball Recruiting (from April 2012) - GSB

PWD


PS - Fox lost to Davidson earlier this year, and he lost to Youngstown State and Iona last year.  Does Davidson play the AAU game?  Does Youngstown State?

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UGA's Financial Commitment to Basketball

By Paul Westerdawg

I've seen a lot of chatter on message boards about UGA's lack of commitment to hoops.  There is a myth that's out there now that UGA doesn't pay for coaching talent and invest in basketball.  The theory goes that because we haven't torn down Stegeman and completely rebuilt it that we're not "all in."

Most of that noise is from an old song book about UGA basketball.  Much of which is no longer relevant. Here are some facts:

In 2009, when we hired Mark Fox, we was offered $1.3 million. At that exact moment, Jim Calhoun of Uconn had 2 National Titles and like 7 Final Four appearances.  Calhoun was making $1.6 million.

At that time, we offered Mark a deal which was roughly Top 20-30 money.  More importantly, we offered Mike Anderson, between $2.3 million and $2.0 million. That package was comparable to what Roy Williams was making at UNC at the time.

Roy Williams made $2.11 million in 2011...2 years AFTER we offered Mike Anderson $2 million.

Mike Anderson turned us down to stay at Missouri for $1.3 million.  We hired Mark Fox at $1.3 million and bumped him to $1.7 million after his contract was renewed in 2011.  If we had paid Mark more in 2011, it wouldn't have made him a better recruiter.

The point: Salary for our head coach isn't the problem, 

and it's not the problem for the assistants either.

Mark Fox is losing because he's not the right coach for UGA.  It's not because he isn't paid competitively.

Facilities Ramp Up
UGA started beefing up the investment in facilities used by the basketball team in 2005.  The practice Annex was a $30 million investment (opened in 2006) and the Stegeman renovations in 2010 were an additional $12 million investment.  There's another million or two in incremental modest enhancements overlaying that which I'll ignore for now.

Over that same time period, Auburn is the only SEC school who has outspent us on bball facilities.  Even if you dial it back a full decade, its the same story.

• UK spent $30 million in that time. (although a massive redo of Rupp is on the horizon)
• UT spent around $15 million
• GT just spend $45 million which is basically the same as what we spent.

We have many issues, but financial commitment isn't the problem anymore.  The problem isn't the marketing department.  The problem isn't the PR team.  The problem isn't fan support.

Fan support is a symptom. It isn't the root disease.

The problem is that Mark is a poor recruiter who plays a boring brand of basketball and lacks any ability whatsoever to evangelize and sell his product to the UGA fan base, AAU/HS coaching community or media.

We've let him run this thing into the ground because he wouldn't staff for success. Finding his replacement is not going to be easy.  But it is what it is.  McGarity makes the big bucks to thread this needle. In March, he'll have to do that barring us winning at Colorado or GW and going about 13-5 in the SEC.  That's about what it would take for this team with this strength of schedule just to make the NIT.

And he may have to make the NIT to save his job.

PWD

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UGA Defense: Getting Off the Field

In a quest to try to figure out some stuff about our defense, I've been crunching numbers.

First, I don't have any sage conclusions. When I embarked on this, I expected something, anything to really jump out at me. Regretfully, other than one thing about 3rd down and medium yardage, nothing did.

Second, we're not good at getting off the field. Very not good.

Fix things just a little bit, boys.
(Image: Hipple)

Third, that has resulted in an awful TD to FG ratio.

Like I said, nothing sage, but there is some interesting stuff here. Carry on....

TDs allowed by UGA:

Rushing TDs	11
Passing TDs	12
Other TDs	4

So, we've given up 23 TDs when our defense is on the field. Taking those 4 TDs away from scoring defense, we'd still only be in the upper 60s in scoring defense in the nation. Part of that is competition: We've faced the number 8 (Missouri), 15 (LSU), 17 (Clemson), and 38 (South Carolina) scoring offenses in the nation. I would expect some of that to moderate through the season as we move into the less daunting part of our schedule.

Still, that doesn't fully explain the very pedestrian scoring defense (27.33 ppg). You know what does? Georgia has only forced teams to kick 5 FGs all season. Contrast that with 27 TDs (23 against the defense). That ratio puts UGA 105th or so in the nation. For comparison sake, Georgia gave up 34 TDs in all 14 games last season. That was against 13 FGs. In 2011, it was 37 TDs/11 FGs. So not only are teams getting more chances to score, they are converting those chances into TDs more, too.

Merely getting to our percentages to 2012 levels (70% TDs on all scoring chances) for the second half of the season projects out to a full point per game improvement.

We've talked a lot about 'getting off the field,' so nothing about this is a surprise. When we've gotten to 3rd down (it only happens on 48% of all 1st downs), UGA has held teams to 3rd and 7+ yards 48 out of 88 times. Overwhelmingly, the book is to pass in those situations. We are yielding first downs on 41% of those plays when teams pass. When we have 3rd and short, it becomes a hodgepodge. Again, not surprisingly, we aren't good at 3rd and under 7 yards. Teams are converting 50%. That number is fairly heavily skewed by teams running the ball with less than 4 yards, converting 60% of those opportunities.

Most damning is we are giving up the same 50% when teams are 3rd and 4-6 yards. Surprisingly, teams are deciding to throw the ball more in this situation, by nearly a 3-1 ratio. Even with all the bad things that can happen when you throw the ball, teams have gained 8 first downs on 16 pass plays when we are 3rd and 4-6 yards. Teams aren't doing anything fancy, with a 136qb rating (although that in itself isn't awesome) and just 2 plays going 15+ yards.

I wonder if that is a result of something offenses are seeing about our sets? Is it QBs checking into a short passing play? Is the crossing route really that effective?

If we tighten up just that one thing, even if it means we always go one on one and bring the house on 3rd and 4-6, that would flip the field some.

I don't have any grand answers for covering receivers better, although we have some success making QBs throw the ball away when we get pressure. The one thing I would say is that when we are 3rd and short, it is paramount we I wish we would press the WRs at the line to disrupt patterns if we aren't going to bring a full out blitz. Nothing drives me crazy like seeing a CB three steps beyond the first down marker on 3rd down.

That's just gift yardage we can not afford to give.
TD

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Just occurred to me: 3rd and Willie

Is it technically a 3rd and Willie, if Jancek is the DC? Looking over this, you could make the case that it is:

• 3rd Down and long - This is also a blitz heavy down (57%) and Jancek likes to bring interior pressure on third and long.
• Third down and medium - This is a strong zone down for the Volunteers as they are looking to force a punt. Jancek rarely brings the blitz (17%).
• Third down and short - Just like second and short, third and as many yards is a heavy slant or stunt down for the defense (68%).

That looks so much like what we saw with Martinez as DC. How does that match up with our tendencies? Glad you asked.

Georgia 3rd down: 31 passes, 21 rushes, 20 first downs. Probably not shocking: We have run the ball nearly equal number of times in most distances on 3rd down.

Situation	G	Att	Yards	Avg.	TD	Long	1st	10+	20+
3rd Down	4	21	47	2.24	1	14	3	2	0
3rd Down, 1-3 To Go	4	6	4	0.67	0	2	1	0	0
3rd Down, 4-6 To Go	4	7	12	1.71	1	6	1	0	0
3rd Down, 7-9 To Go	2	3	2	0.67	0	3	0	0	0
3rd Down, 10+ To Go	3	5	29	5.80	0	14	1	2	0

Passing wise, we do things equally balanced:

Situation	G	Att	Comp	Pct.	Yards	TD	Int	Rating	Long	1st	15+	25+
3rd Down	4	31	19	61.3	356	4	1	193.89	85	15	8	4
3rd Down, 1-3 To Go	3	5	4	80.0	78	0	0	211.04	35	4	2	1
3rd Down, 4-6 To Go	3	5	3	60.0	33	1	0	181.44	16	3	1	0
3rd Down, 7-9 To Go	4	11	7	63.6	107	1	0	175.35	33	4	2	2
3rd Down, 10+ To Go	4	10	5	50.0	138	2	1	211.92	85	4	3	1

Also, can you call it 3rd and Willie if we never get to third down? As I mentioned, UGA has only faced 52 3rd downs this season. When you look at the number of first down opportunities (142), you see we are either getting a first down, scoring, or turning the ball over on 63% of all offensive opportunities where we have a first down. To put it another way, we only face 3rd down 37% of the time when we line up on a first down, however earned. We are 18th for the fewest 3rd downs faced this year.

While our conversion rate isn't awesome (38.46%), when you look at the number of 3rd and longs as a % of 3rd down (over half are 3rd and 7+), that shouldn't be a surprise. What should be is the 2 first downs on 3rd and less than 6 running the ball on 13 attempts versus the 7 first downs on 10 attempts when we throw the ball in that situation. Think back to how Willie Jancek tends to defend those plays, plenty of run support and stunts, combined with the probability Gurley sits.

Just something to think about if we get too cute trying to run the ball down their throats establish the run. 

TD

*Stats from cfbstats.com

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GameDay selection process

Earlier, I posted that I didn't think ESPN GameDay would come to Athens for LSU vs. Georgia. It inspired a few comments about GameDay and their selection process. @ClemMcDavid sent me to an article in Street and Smith's Sport Business Daily about GameDay, which was a nice rundown on it's sponsorship evolution process, but also had some nuggets I found interesting.

First, three of the four major sponosors are rooted in Atlanta. Conceptually, I knew this, but didn't think about it until I was reading the article. They they actually addressed it. Between Home Depot, AT&T, and Coke, they are only lacking Delta for the Atlanta slam. The reason, Atlanta is the center of the college football firmament.

It isn't an accident they are almost always at the SEC Championship game. They are almost always at the CFA kickoff game. Don't be surprised when they are in Atlanta for the Peach Bowl when it hosts the semi-finals. There is a chicken and egg relationship here. Atlanta is the largest American city that is a true college football town.

One other interesting thing is their selection process for GameDay locations:

From a list as long as five or six games each week, Fitting and the “GameDay” crew — Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Lee Corso and Desmond Howard — talk about the merits of each potential road trip. While Fitting runs point on the meeting, Fowler, the primary host, and Herbstreit, the show’s most visible personality, typically have the most input.

Now, that won't quell those that think Herbie is biased against UGA, but that also makes sense. ESPN's brass is involved, too:

By the time Fitting left the “GameDay” set and flew home to his Connecticut home that Saturday night at 10, the emails were still flying back and forth with Mark Gross, ESPN’s senior vice president and executive producer, and John Wildhack, executive vice president, production. 

“John has the ultimate say,” Fitting said. “But rarely is there ever any pushback.”

That is where the ESPN connection comes in. Of course, they say their is no network bias, noting

ESPN does not discriminate over which broadcaster has the game at that site. On several occasions, “GameDay” has traveled to a game that’s being televised by CBS or Fox.
“There’s no real formula and there’s no concern over the network broadcasting the game,” Fitting said.

And no one, Fitting emphasizes, other than those who work on “GameDay,” have a voice in the decision. Even the highest-level sponsors don’t know where the show is going until a public announcement is made on Sundays.

Again, it could be a chicken and egg thing. CBS only broadcasts 15 games a year, including the SEC Championship game, with ABC carried 42 games on a national or split national basis last year. In 2012, four of their regular season games, including the SECCG, were GameDay sites. That math suggests randomness, too.

Still, with #3 Ohio State playing Wisconsin, I'd be shocked if they forgo the opportunity to be in Columbus, even for a top 10 match-up in Athens. For my money, we'll see them in Jacksonville this year.
TD

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Fighting Like Cats and Dogs

Kyle King has moved on to other things beyond Dawg Sports. This you know. What you may not know is he has written a book on the Georgia-Clemson rivalry, Fighting Like Cats and Dogs. You can order that book here.

I've asked Kyle a few questions about the book. He poked fun at himself, turned a few questions into 1000 words, and got to the heart of his step back from blogging:

How is writing a book similar to blogging? Different?
Well, at least for me, the length is the same. It’s actually a very different style of writing, even though each form of sportswriting occurs in episodic bursts with common themes running through them both. Blogging involves a continuous need to balance thoroughness with timeliness; with a book, considerations of speed are largely nonexistent, while depth of coverage is a must. A quick Google search is liable to unearth a useful piece of information for use on the Internet, but writing about the lineups for two college football teams from a game played in 1900 requires digging through some primary source materials. Also, books don’t have hyperlinks, which probably saved me a lot of hours. 

Why Clemson vs. Georgia?
I’m 44, so Bobby Dodd left the sideline at Georgia Tech before I was born and Steve Spurrier began coaching at Florida the year I graduated from college. During my formative years as a fan, the Bulldogs dominated the Gators and the Yellow Jackets, while Georgia struggled with Auburn and Clemson. I grew up with the two sets of Tigers being perennially the toughest teams on the slate, and, as Dale Cooper said when ordering breakfast, old habits die hard.

I wanted to tell the history of this rivalry because it has mattered so much to both schools, who are located virtually right on top of one another, and who still play regularly in multiple sports. This rivalry has it all: It has been a neutral-site rivalry and a home-and-away affair; it has been a non-conference rivalry and a conference rivalry; the two teams have met on Labor Day and on Thanksgiving Day. There are numerous family ties between the two schools, so much so that a University of Georgia chancellor was the father of a Clemson College president. Both teams peaked simultaneously in the early ‘80s, and the two programs were mirror images of one another, as Vince Dooley’s and Danny Ford’s teams rose to the top using ball-control offense, rock-ribbed defense, and sound special teams. The similarities are so striking that both programs won national championships after going 6-5 and changing their uniform pants. (Georgia reintroduced the silver britches for the 1980 campaign, and Clemson took to wearing orange pants for big games in the 1981 season.)

Unlike Bill Cromartie in Clean Old-Fashioned Hate and Cale Conley in War Between the States, though, I wasn’t telling the story of a rivalry with which every fan from eight to 80 was familiar as an annual affair. After playing 24 times in 26 years from 1962 to 1987, Georgia and Clemson met on the gridiron six times in 25 years from 1988 to 2012. With the series about to be renewed in arguably the biggest game in the history of the rivalry, it was time to remind fans of both teams of their long heritage with one another.

Any chance you take on Georgia vs. Auburn? 
And call it what? Fighting Like Cats and Dogs II: This Time, It’s Personal? Sure, I’ve thought about it; it’s the one major Georgia rivalry that doesn’t yet have its own book, and the Plainsmen are the Bulldogs’ oldest and most-played rival, but the very thing that makes it appealing makes it so very daunting. With only a very few exceptions, Georgia and Auburn have played annually for 120 years. That’s a lot of games to cover, including a lot of Red and Black losses to a rival I absolutely despise, so the emotional and time investments would be substantial. We’ll see how Fighting Like Cats and Dogs does, but our old college buddy, Pete Allen (who devoted many hours to helping me research this book), has been trying to get me to tackle the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry next, so I may give in eventually.

What about other writing projects?
Right now, my focus is on getting the word out about Fighting Like Cats and Dogs, so I haven’t been giving that a great deal of thought. If this book does well, I’ll give some thought to what, if anything, to do next. Like (I suppose) a lot of Southern lawyers my age, I have a couple of half-finished novels in the desk drawer, and I don’t rule out returning to one or both of those at a later date. During his lifetime, Walker Percy published six book-length works of fiction and two book-length works of non-fiction, but, by the time he was my age, he had published exactly none of them, so I’m not in any hurry. Right now, I’m just enjoying the knowledge that I’ve published as many books about college football as Stewart Mandel has.

Who is your favorite author? Why?
William Faulkner. In 1937, Thomas Wolfe wrote a letter to F. Scott Fitzgerald in which he explained that great authors were “putter-inners” more than “taker-outers”. Faulkner was the ultimate putter-inner, because he felt he had the whole of history weighing upon every word, requiring that, in order to get it all in, he expand from a word to a phrase to a sentence to a paragraph, piling words on top of words to get down to the essence of it all. Sometimes he succeeded, and sometimes he failed, but he was determined to delve down to the depths of the few places and subjects that mattered to him most. Longwinded provincial Southern writer who is bound and determined to expend as many words as it takes to cover comprehensively the tiny number of topics about which he cares passionately? Yeah, I can relate to that.

Now that you aren’t blogging, are you surprised that you have children?
Hey, I even remember their names now! In all seriousness, though, my seven years at Dawg Sports were a really rewarding time, and I’ll always be grateful to MaconDawg, the rest of the staff, and the entire community there for the camaraderie that I continue to enjoy and the confidence they gave me that my departure from the masthead would not harm the site. It was very gratifying to be able to take a step back on my own terms, focus attention on other aspects of life, and still know I had a place there as a community member without any day-to-day managerial responsibilities. I’ll always be grateful to everyone there for each of their contributions to a chapter of my life that I enjoyed from start to finish, and for all of their understanding of my need to turn the page, not because sports blogging didn’t matter---it still did---but because family, faith, and career mattered more.

Many thanks, Kyle.

TD

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What will FSU do with Matthew Thomas?

One thing that struck me about this whole thing is the timing. Thomas attended FSU's spring game and reportedly didn't say anything to his coaches or FSU's coaches. Now, his mother goes out of town and he is looking to get out of his National Letter of Intent (NLI). That is something I missed before and honestly can't figure if, or how, it plays into Thomas letting FSU know he wants out.

I'm not ready to just write him off as a diva or whatever other term that is getting thrown around. He didn't strike me that way in his recruiting, and I can think of plenty of reasons he might be re-thinking his decision now. What makes me curious is how the conversation with him mom and Fisher will go. Will he do the opposite of what his mom wants by signing with USC whenever he gets the chance to do so? I still don't
think so, but who knows.

(Image: USA Today, From Tallahassee Democrat)

That being said, I see this going one of two ways. One is simple: FSU releases him, either outright or with restrictions, from his NLI. Since Derek Dooley isn't coaching there, it is hard to see them putting too many restrictions on him other than currently scheduled schools. Even if they put no restrictions on him, ACC rules require him to sit out two years, so any ACC school is also probably out. BTW, FSU's currently scheduled schools include Florida, Oklahoma State, Bethune-Cookman, Nevada, Idaho, Notre Dame, The Citadel, Texas State, and Chattanooga. This Provision 6 release would allow him to participate in Fall 2013. After looking over the NLI rules, I am not sure they could place ad hoc restrictions on him, but who knows, since it is a contract.

The other isn't so simple. If FSU says no, he could stay and play. He could not enroll and enroll at the school he intends to play for in 2014, but with only three years of eligibility left. Per Provision 4, he will get dinged a year penalty plus the year he is enrolled, but can't participate. He can appeal these penalties to the National Letter of Intent Review Committee, which, not surprisingly, is based at the NCAA and is made up of Count Dooku, Verbal Kint, and Kenneth Starr. He'll need to show extenuating circumstances.

Therein lies the rub. Can he?

There is also a whole other issue about FSU allowing him to be recruited, but I don't have the time or mind power to see how that plays into this. It was mentioned to me that the only other recruiting situation that comes close to this is Seantrel Henderson, who signed with Southern Cal, then was granted his release when the NCAA dropped the hammer on the Trojans. There are a couple of key things different here. First, FSU isn't getting the hammer dropped on them, so that extenuating circumstance isn't there. Second. FSU doesn't need to free up a scholarship, like Southern Cal needed to do at that time.

So, what does that mean? I have to think one of two things happen now. The first is that Thomas' has another change of heart and still goes to Tallahassee. While that is the simplest scenario in this whole mess, I can't get my mind around why do this if momma is just going to make you stay with your (her?) pick. Second,  FSU grants the release. If they grant the release, he'll come to Georgia, IMHO. I'm not saying they do; I'm not saying they won't. I just think he'll come to Athens if they do. I don't see the juice being worth the squeeze for FSU to refuse the request, long term.

Finally, there is always a JUCO route, if he chooses to go that way. I'd guess he'll still have three years of eligibility when he is done there, so unless he somehow becomes untouchable due to this situation or can't qualify where he wants to go, I can't see him going JUCO. He could just enroll at the institution he intends to play for and still hold those same three years of eligibility, while practicing with his team mates and learning the system he's going to play in.

It'll be an interesting thing to watch as him mom gets back into town and those meetings with Jimbo Fisher happen. Of course, the long term fallout with this will be how top prospects handle NLIs going forward. For my money, I think we'll see fewer letters of intent signed, and more players actually dragging their recruiting out longer.

I bet Paul Johnson will love that.

TD

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"The Debate that Never Happened"

The University of Georgia webisphere (it's a word, just search for it and find this post; if it is on the Internet, it is a word) is richly blessed. It isn't hyperbole to say that UGA has one of the most robust blogger and message board presences within the collegiate sporting world. There are plenty of reasons why, but chief among them is the emergence of Web 2.0 coinciding nicely with the Dawgs taking the step back into relevance in football.

Web 2.0 invited the common fan into the public debate that had been relegated to tailgate bitch sessions, the liars table at local breakfast joints, and email threads. While there is no Seneca Falls Declaration of Sentiments to herald the coming tide of the common fan having a public voice, 2004-06 served as a seminal time for the Georgia blogosphere, punctuated by Kyle moving from his email threads to his original blog.

Charlotte is a T. Kyle King fan.

It isn't fair to say Kyle is the George Washington of Georgia bloggers, as there were others who were before him on the Internet in this format. Perhaps it is, with apologies  fairer to argue he is the University of North Carolina of Georgia bloggers, not first, but the first to get rolling (minus the annoying habit of trying to revise history by completely missing what first means). What the various message boards had wrought with many voices at once, Kyle King served as the Patterson Hood for Bulldog Gens: always providing the right lyrics to bring our way of life into focus, and usually with a lot of words.

As a Georgia blogger, I take great pride in being part of the tradition that Brother King is leaving. In fact, he and I have much in common, beyond an ability to get worked up over Georgia basketball. I have been fortunate to have known him for over 20 years, and in fact, he and I attended law school together (ed note: I've got a JHL reference coming). However, our styles and sensibilities are completely different. While he is given to strong logical arguments and esoteric references, I prefer shotgun humor, to the extent it can be called humorous, and rambling non sequiturs. Furthermore, I frequently abuse word usage, punctuation, spelling and Oxford commas.

To be sure, he is James Abbott McNeill Whistler to my Jean-Baptiste-Camille Corot. His work is approachable, but complex, and very hard to emulate. My work is simple, evocative (sometimes), and can be easily emulated with a keyboard and a list of pop culture references. Fortunately, we have never found ourselves on the opposite sides of a point, lest he demolish me with things like logic and reason.

I would be remiss in not honoring his place in helping me become a blogger. I spent time in Maryland in my prior life. Nothing too arduous, just work and whatnot. Much like Spiro T. Agnew, my time there was filled with challenges, both personal and professional, and involved work with the Baltimore County Board of Zoning Appeals. Nearly immediately upon moving back to Athens, I reconnected with Kyle, and he got me on his email list of random musings about college football.

Seeing him churn out his missives, I realized that there has to be catharsis in getting those things in the open. An airing of concerns and sharing of sorrows (and joy). Hell, I is lawyer, so I can too. And I did. And it helped.

If you think he is verbose now, you should have seen his emails. Joe Theismann started using that prostate stuff he uses just to get through them in one sitting. Those emails were, however, jam packed with useful information, strong analysis and his hatred of Auburn, sometimes in hiaku:

Last season, Auburn
Went undefeated. Begin
Investigating.

Has Auburn ever
Won a conference title
Without probation?

Did you know Kyle King hates Auburn the way Thomas Matthews probably hated Admiral Lestock for holding back at Toulon?

One last thing about Kyle. I am proud to say he is a friend and fellow lawyer. He has a very balanced approach in his professional life. He has repeatedly called for clarity in Georgia's code and a common sense approach to the political, financial, and social problems Georgia faces. While I know his views on human servitude are very different, his approach to legislative reform and the future of Georgia's industrial and education system are evocative of Joseph Henry Lumpkin's from nearly 175 years before.

Mr. King, go forth into whatever there is for a retired blogger. I count myself fortunate to be able to know you personally, so I can continue to know your thoughts on things. Perhaps my greatest sadness in this whole affair is that others won't get to share in that joy.

In that way, perhaps the more apt analogy for this retirement is that of Matt Hooper swimming away from a dead shark than Curt Henderson leaving to go to college.Yes, the franchise lives on (and unlike in my analogy, lives on quite strongly), but we'll all miss the original work. And exploding sharks; we'll definitely miss those.

Tomorrow is a sad day for this blogger, to be sure. Good luck, sir. A great many of us thank you for your service to the Bulldog Nation.

TD

PS. I wouldn't piss on Howard's Rock if it was on fire, unless I pissed gasoline.

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WAY premature NIT talk...

Putting aside my disgust anger resentment over us getting excited about the NIT, I felt it important to answer Kyle King's question: Are Mark Fox's Georgia Bulldgogs Bound for a Bid to the NIT?

In the spirit and recognition of his ability to turn a phrase from five words to fifty, here is a little 700 word response....

Georgia will make the NIT if one of two things happen:

First...let's get the easiest to figure and least likely to happen out of the way. Georgia has to finish one game ahead of Florida. At 9-1, the Gators are three games ahead of Georgia, with a 2-0 head to head record. Currently, Kentucky, Ole Miss and Alabama are in front of the Dawgs. We are tied with Missouri, and the Tigers possess the tie breaker with the head to head win. Unless something crazy happens, Georgia just about has to win out and hope Florida loses four more games.

That gives the Dawgs the regular season championship that would give them an automatic NIT bid. As an aside, the language in the selection criteria makes it very clear that tie breakers come into play, so the Dawgs would have to finish one game ahead of Missouri and Kentucky, as the Wildcats' win over Florida gives them an advantage due to the SEC tiebreaker procedures.

In other words, that is a very tough row to hoe.

Second...Georgia continues to win the games they should, plus sneaks up on someone to get a signature win. The NIT selection committee faces much less public scrutiny than the NCAA selection committee. That is a double edged sword for a major conference team that currently sports four sub-150 RPI losses and one sub-250 RPI loss. Staying above .500 is the least of Georgia's worries, as far as the NIT goes.

Looking at past year's brackets, there is an emerging pattern of selection for major conference teams. The teams almost always have a sub-90 RPI. They usually have at least four quality wins. They all finished with at least 18 wins (the only team to go with 17 wins was last year's Iowa squad that was 17-16, but had four top-50 RPI wins against only two 'bad' losses).

Based on that, Georgia must go 6-2 from here on out. That isn't as impossible a task as I thought it would be just two weeks ago. The hard part is getting the two more quality wins, assuming the two Texas A&M wins can be counted as quality at the end of the season. We face Kentucky and Ole Miss. We face Alabama twice. We face Arkansas. To get to those six wins, we'll have to win three of those five games. No matter how you slice it, one of those wins will be on the road, something the selection committees might factor in, if it is a close call.

At 18-13 (12-6), Georgia would hold a mid-70s RPI. If we pull that off? We'll not only go, but likely host a game as a four seed.

Let's look at the reality scenario last. Let say we win the three games we are looking more and more likely to win: South Carolina and Tennessee at home and Vandy on the road. Plus, we win our home game against Alabama Tuesday night. That puts us at 16-15 (10-8) and a mid-90s RPI to end the regular season. I think we'd be a very hard pick into the NIT with those numbers, absent a deep run in the SEC tournament that gives the Dawgs another quality win or two. No way we get in without at least playing in the SEC Championship game and getting two quality wins during the tournament.

Put up a road win over Ole Miss or win the home game over Kentucky, then your chances go up exponentially. You get the double pop of winning a quality game and another late season win over an NCAA team.  However, even with one of those wins, you are still, at best, on the NIT bubble, if there is such a thing.

As it stands, I'll keep looking at this thing one game at a time. We dug a very deep hole the first two months of the season. We might have found a way to build a ladder, but we still have some building to do if we are to get out of it by March.

TD

See also:
- NIT Bracketology, Big Apple Buckets
Currently has Alabama and Arkansas as 2 seeds, Texas A&M as a 3 seed, and Tennessee as an 8 seed

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Grantham's Defense, Part One

A comment on a prior post got me to thinking, how bad was Georgia's defense? I know we finished 32nd in the nation, but when you also finish 6th in your own conference, there is room for debate there.

So how did we do?

From cfbstats.com:

Date	Opponent	Result	Plays	Total Yards	Yards/Play	Dev from Yards/Play
9/1/2012	Buffalo	W 45-23	70	347	4.96	-0.25
9/8/2012	@ Missouri	W 41-20	80	371	4.64	-0.29
9/15/2012	Fla. Atlantic	W 56-20	71	318	4.48	-0.58
9/22/2012	23 Vanderbilt	W 48-3	61	337	5.52	-0.13
9/29/2012	Tennessee	W 51-44	85	478	5.62	-0.8
10/6/2012	@ 8 South Carolina	L 7-35	61	392	6.43	0.71
10/20/2012	@ Kentucky	W 29-24	63	329	5.22	0.44
10/27/2012	+ 9 Florida	W 17-9	69	266	3.86	-1.39
11/3/2012	Mississippi	W 37-10	57	234	4.11	-1.62
11/10/2012	@ Auburn	W 38-0	49	238	4.86	-0.41
11/17/2012	Ga. Southern	W 45-14	62	318	5.13	*
11/24/2012	Georgia Tech	W 42-10	88	426	4.84	-1.32
12/1/2012	+ 1 Alabama	L 28-32	72	512	7.11	0.16
1/1/2013	+ 25 Nebraska	W 45-31	79	443	5.61	-0.59

So, our two worst games, from a YPP perspective were Kentucky and SC. I our two best were Florida and Georgia Tech. I realize that YPP might not fully capture the nature of a defensive performance, so I also thought I'd look at scoring defense.

Date	Opponent	Result	TD	Points	Dev from ppg
9/1/2012	Buffalo	W 45-23	3	23	1.5
9/8/2012	@ Missouri	W 41-20	2	20	-5.8
9/15/2012	Fla. Atlantic	W 56-20	3	20	-0.5
9/22/2012	23 Vanderbilt	W 48-3	0	3	-27
9/29/2012	Tennessee	W 51-44	6	44	7.8
10/6/2012	@ 8 South Carolina	L 7-35	5	35	3.5
10/20/2012	@ Kentucky	W 29-24	3	24	6.1
10/27/2012	+ 9 Florida	W 17-9	0	9	-17.5
11/3/2012	Mississippi	W 37-10	1	10	-21.5
11/10/2012	@ Auburn	W 38-0	0	0	-18.7
11/17/2012	Ga. Southern	W 45-14	2	14	*
11/24/2012	Georgia Tech	W 42-10	1	10	-23.6
12/1/2012	+ 1 Alabama	L 28-32	4	32	-6.7
1/1/2013	+ 25 Nebraska	W 45-31	4	31	-3.8

Again, nothing too earth shattering. Not sure you can read too much into this, other than we held 9 of our 13 DI opponents under their season average and held three of our biggest rivals to more than 2.5 TDs below their season average.

So, I know you are about to go on about rushing. Rightfully so. We were not good at run defense, particularly against teams that already run the ball well, right?

Date	Opponent	Result	Att	Yards	Avg.	TD	Dev from ypc
9/1/2012	Buffalo	W 45-23	45	199	4.42	2	-0.06
9/8/2012	@ Missouri	W 41-20	39	102	2.62	0	-1.05
9/15/2012	Fla. Atlantic	W 56-20	38	135	3.55	1	0.21
9/22/2012	23 Vanderbilt	W 48-3	36	106	2.94	0	-1.2
9/29/2012	Tennessee	W 51-44	40	197	4.93	3	0.57
10/6/2012	@ 8 South Carolina	L 7-35	51	230	4.51	2	0.84
10/20/2012	@ Kentucky	W 29-24	43	206	4.79	2	0.66
10/27/2012	+ 9 Florida	W 17-9	40	75	1.88	0	-2.65
11/3/2012	Mississippi	W 37-10	29	46	1.59	0	-2.5
11/10/2012	@ Auburn	W 38-0	27	57	2.11	0	-1.96
11/17/2012	Ga. Southern	W 45-14	58	302	5.21	2
11/24/2012	Georgia Tech	W 42-10	67	306	4.57	1	-0.82
12/1/2012	+ 1 Alabama	L 28-32	51	350	6.86	3	1.27
1/1/2013	+ 25 Nebraska	W 45-31	52	239	4.6	1	-0.76

Little side note, Nebraska, Alabama, Gerogia Tech, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Florida Atlantic, Missouri, and Buffalo ran the ball more times than their season average against Georgia. Alabama did so 12 times more than their season average. I suspect part of this has to do with keeping Georgia's offense off the field. I know part of it has to do with teams deciding that running the ball was the better way to move the ball on Georgia (as we were ranked top 10 in pass defense).

Actually that bore itself out over the season, as Georgia faced the fourth fewest pass attempts per game in the nation. Georgia faced more rushing attempts than 115 teams. Teams decided that the only way to beat Georgia was to run the ball. The only real fault I can find is the 4.14 yards per carry Georgia gave up. That put us in the mid-60s in the nation.

Just to wrap up:

• Four teams scored more than their season average.
• One team score more than a TD more than their season average.
• Three teams had more ypc than their average.
• Only two teams ran for substantially more ypc than their season average. 
• Four teams scored 2.5 TDs fewer than their season average.
• We were thoroughly average at yards per carry nationally.

I'd say overall, Georgia's defense had three bad games: South Carolina, Tennessee and Kentucky. They had two slightly below average (considering the competition) games: Buffalo and Florida Atlantic. They had several average games, including Alabama (except for their yard per carry) and Nebraska. When you consider seven of Nebraska's points were on a gimme interception return, seven of South Carolina's points were on a punt return, seven of Tennessee's points were on a interception return (plus the Vols got two turnovers inside of the 20 yard line that were converted into TDs), and FAU had a TD returned for a TD, those games aren't as bad. 

Hell, looking at the Tennessee game, in hindsight the offense is closer to being at blame for what happened there, especially on the scoring side.

Nothing about this season made me think we had a terrible defense. Yes, even with the talent we had. Could we have done more? Certainly. Could it have been worse? Always. Just understand what we are talking about when you start with the Grantham should just leave non-sense line. 

TD

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