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October 18, 2013

Offenses, defenses, and regression to the mean

Came across a great visual representation of how teams are ranked in F/+ ratings, which is a measure of team's defensive, offensive, and special team's efficiency. As it was stated in the post with this graphic, you want to be to the upper right hand corner of this chart.

While it shouldn't surprise you to see Georgia near the top and to the left, look at some of the other teams. Specifically, look at Texas A&M, Florida, Missouri, and LSU.  It shouldn't surprise you to see A&M an outlier to the upper right (excellent O, terrible D) or Florida in the opposite position.  Missouri does surprise me, as I felt they were a much better offensive team than defensive team, however, this chart indicates that is the opposite.

As for LSU, who knows? They have looked really good on offense and really good on defense. It also should be a surprise to see FSU and Oregon as basically the best, most balanced teams in the nation. When you look at this, it isn't hard to think UGA should be set up pretty good for the rest of the season, except for two games. Florida is the obvious one. The other is Georgia Tech. While Georgia's numbers on offense are great (10th) and defense aren't terrible (UGA is 57th on defense), Tech's numbers are consistent in the mid-40s for both. That'd put them slightly below and to the left of Ohio State. In Tech, it'll come down to how much we bite on the run allowing them to throw a couple of TD passes, which is something they love to do.

Based on this, I would look for A&M and LSU to be an 85 point game, Missouri vs. Florida to be an 'ugly' low scoring affair, and FSU to handle Clemson rather easily. I'd also look for Georgia vs. Florida to be similar to LSU vs. Florida, but with more Florida scoring.

How much more will be the question.

See also:
- A picture that's worth a thousand words (Blutarsky)
- Tennessee is the most 'average' team in college football according to the F/+ rankings, getting a huge boost from being 18th in special teams


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