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October 17, 2014

4th Quarter issues for Arky

When you sit down and look at Georgia and Arkansas, you see offenses that look a lot alike:

UGA rushing and passing stats:
All Games626416546.272144.00275.67
All Games614610169.210207.093144.0924.3170.0

Arkansas rushing and passing stats:
All Games626816726.242144.67278.67
All Games61478457.110857.4103137.5124.5180.8

Arkansas is converting 3rd downs at a slightly higher clip, 49% to 44%, with Arkansas' offense facing one more 3rd down than Georgia.

Defensively, Georgia has the edge. Georgia has allowed a yard less per play than Arkansas, and five points per game less. Our rushing and passing defense are better than theirs, as you would expect.

One other thing that jumps out is their 4th quarter scoring and points allowed:

But it gets stark when you consider scoring by quarter:
SCORE BY QUARTERS     1st  2nd  3rd  4th    Total
--------------------  ---  ---  ---  ---      ---
Georgia.............   79   68   31   81  -   259
Opponents...........   31   38   10   29  -   108

Score by Quarters  1st  2nd  3rd  4th  OT  Total
Arkansas            84   76   35  41   0    236
Opponents           28   42   28  38   7    143

So it isn't hard to see that Arkansas is a much better first half offensive team.

Their offensive rushing stats are telling. Arkansas is the top first half ypc team in the nation at 7.67. Georgia clocks in at a not shabby 5.59. The Hogs lose a full 2.75 ypc, at 4.83 ypc, in the second half. Georgia increases by over a yard to 6.72. Notably, Arkansas has equal number of rushes in both halfs, while Georgia has 106 first half rushes and 158 second half rushes. While some of that is Gurley, his actual first half vs. second half rushing stats aren't as unbalanced as you might think. To date, he's only attempted eight more rushes in the second half than the first half.

The defensive rushing stats for Arkansas also bear out a significant fall off after half time. The Hogs are limiting teams to 2.8 ypc in first half rushes, with teams attempting 95 rushes against them. In the second half, they are giving up 5.29 ypc on 97 attempts. Their second half passing stats show a similar let down.

So, what does that mean? It means we will try to run the ball right at them, wear them down and want to take over in the second half. Don't be surprised to see us fall behind by two scores in the first half. Don't be surprised to see us still running the ball down by two scores.

And don't be surprised when we pull away to win in the fourth quarter.


DawgDaddy said...

Well I've got the Dawgs winning 34-17 if that helps any.

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