Updated Heisman odds: Gurley falling

Just got some updated Heisman Trophy odds from Bovada. Interestingly, due to the inclusion of several players on the board (at longer than 20/1), the odds of all in the top six, including Todd Gurley, have gotten longer, notably Alabama's Derrick Henry moving onto the board just below T.J. Yeldon at 25/1.

NCAA 2014-2015 Season - Odds to win the Heisman Trophy (Players in red have longer odds, players in blue have shorter odds, and players in black stayed the same)        

Odds on 1/24/14                       Current Odds   

Jameis Winston (QB Florida State)                     2/1                                9/2

Marcus Mariota (QB Oregon)                              7/2                                6/1

Braxton Miller (QB Ohio State)                           4/1                                15/2

Bryce Petty (QB Baylor)                                     6/1                                12/1

Brett Hundley (QB UCLA)                                   12/1                              14/1

Todd Gurley (RB Georgia)                                  12/1                              14/1

Melvin Gordon (RB Wisconsin)                           16/1                              16/1

Nick Marshall (QB Auburn)                                 9/1                                16/1

Trevor Knight (QB Oklahoma)                             25/1                              18/1

Everett Golson (Notre Dame)                             25/1                              20/1

T.J. Yeldon (RB Alabama)                                  5/1                                20/1

Note that Alabama and Auburn's two players are the ones that have significantly longer odds now than they did in January.

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Can Todd Gurley win the Heisman?

Yesterday, I noted there was some sort of campaign afoot for Todd Gurley to win the Heisman. Putting aside if UGA should do a formal campaign, here is my assessment on his chances.

First, he has to stay healthy. Last year before he got hurt against LSU, he was looking to be in the 20 carries, 125 yards, and 2 TDs per game area. In fact, the LSU game was looking to be a breakout game, as he was ripping up the Tiger's D and was on pace for 150 + yards before he got hurt.

Working from those numbers, if he hits 240 carries at his current ypc average, he'll have around 1500 yards rushing, plus whatever he gets receiving, keeping in mind he'll get 4+ passing targets per game (let's say 30 receptions). Will this stat line get him an invite to NYC?

Rushing	Receiving
240 carries	30 receptions
1500 yards (6.25ypc)	350 yards
20 TDs	20 TDs

The last RB to win, Alabama's Mark Ingram had a similar stat line in his Heisman winning campaign:

Rushing	Receiving
271 carries	32 receptions
1658 yards (6.1ypc)	334 yards
17 TDs	3 TDs

Ingram won a close vote over another RB, Toby Gerhart, who had much higher stats (343 carries for 1871 yards and 28 TDs), but played on an 8-5 Stanford team. 2009 also  featured all three returning Heisman finalists: Colt McCoy, Tim Tebow, and Sam Bradford. McCoy and Tebow were finalist (though Tebow should never have been invited with the number of votes he got), along with Ingram, Gerhart, and Ndamukong Suh.

I say all of that to make the point that it will probably take a super special year (think 7+ypc with 250+ carries, 2000+ total yards and 30+TDs).

So ask youself:
Is Todd Gurley capable of that?
Is our offense capable of that?
Is our coaching philosophy able to get him the touches to accomplish that?

For my money, if he stays healthy, he'll get an invite to New York. The rest is really just a beauty contest based on how well UGA's season goes.
TD

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Gurley for Heisman campaign?

I'm sure this will be the first of many posts on this, but it will take a spectacular year from him, and a great year from his team, if a RB is to win it.

#GurleyForHeisman pic.twitter.com/Q0eMzy2VX2
— UGA Football News (@UGAfootballLive) July 19, 2014

I'm all in.
TD

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Gurley top RB in Bovada odds for Heisman

So, yeah. He's got that going for him. It has been passé for running backs to win the Heisman recently, with Mark Ingram and Reggie Bush being the only two one in the past 14 seasons. 

As you can see, QBs are all the top picks, with Gurley being the shortest odds for a RB. Interestingly, Alabama has two RBs in the top 12.

The question is what does Gurley have to do to actually win it?

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Bovada Heisman and National Champion odds

Three weeks in is still kind of early for thinking about Heisman odds, but it is interesting to me that Oregon's Marcus Mariota, on the back of beating a very suspect Tennessee defense for a brazillian yards, is in front of Manziel and McCarron. Taking nothing away from Mariota, who is The Real Deal, despite both A&M and Alabama's defensive issues, both are a long way from Dooley's Lazy Hounds Who Don't Even Chase Cats:

Also, Murray is above Gurley, which is all about national media reporting the monkey being off Murray's back.

Odds to win the 2013-2014 Heisman Trophy

Marcus Mariota (QB Oregon)                              9/2 

Johnny Manziel (QB Texas A&M)                        5/1 

A.J. McCarron (QB Alabama)                             13/2

Teddy Bridgewater (QB Louisville)                      13/2 

Jameis Winston (QB Florida State)                     9/1 

Tajh Boyd (QB Clemson)                                   10/1 

Braxton Miller (QB Ohio State)                           12/1 

De'Anthony Thomas (RB Oregon)                       141 

T.J. Yeldon (RB Alabama)                                  16/1 

Aaron Murray (QB Georgia)                                18/1 

Brett Hundley (QB UCLA)                                   18/1 

Todd Gurley (RB Georgia)                                  20/1

As for winning the national championship goes, Alabama and Oregon are still your top two. Texas A&M falls down to 100/1, with the likes of Georgia Tech, Northwestern, and Florida. Georgia checks in at 22/1.

Odds to win the 2013-2014 BCS National Championship

Alabama                       2/1 

Oregon                         4/1 

Ohio State                    13/2 

Clemson                       12/1  

Florida State                 12/1 

LSU                              14/1 

Stanford                       14/1 

Michigan                       16/1 

Oklahoma State            16/1 

Miami                           20/1 

Georgia                        22/1 

Louisville                      25/1 

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Is this year's Heisman a slap at Herschel?

Manziel in less happy times.

I have a great deal of respect for T. Kyle King (not to mention awe at the sheer wordiness of his writings). However, I'm not taking such a harsh stand against the Heisman for real and perceived wrongs from 32 years ago as he is. Was Johnny Manziel the most deserving candidate for the Heisman this season, even as a freshman? Yes. Was Herschel Walker the most deserving candidate for Heisman in 1980, even as a freshman? Yes, but it was close.

The real issue is that times have changed. The voters selected an undergraduate for the first time in 2007 and repeated it in 2008 and 2009. I my mind, it was inevitable that a freshman would win the trophy eventually, as the unwritten rule about it being more a career award than individual season had been seemingly stripped away. Interestingly, none of those winners repeated.

On top of having a higher number of voters than there were in 1980, I have a feeling, though completely based on nothing more than hunch, voters are likely younger. Age of the voters alone can explain how the voters can see Herschel's 1980 season and think a senior with more yards and 1 more touchdown is a more worthy candidate. Now, we can say with little doubt that finishing behind Hugh Green in 3rd was absolutely a slap in Herschel's face.

There will be another freshman win the Heisman. However, the real question is will we see another repeat winner? Obviously, Manziel is the only one that can do so right now, but history isn't on his side.
TD

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Nesbitt for Heisman Watch

Some stats to consider as part of the Joshua Nesbitt for Heisman Campaign. For the season, Nesbitt is completing 36% of his passes. That's 8.3 attempts per game and exactly 3.0 completions per game.

On 3rd down:

• 3rd and 1-3 yards -- 0 for 1
  
• 3rd and 4-6 yards -- 1 for 2
  
• 3rd and 7-9 yards -- 0 for 1
  
• 3rd and 10+ yards -- 2 for 4

For the season, Tech has faced third down 38 times, and they've converted 50% of them. Therefore, no one can completely dismiss what Coach Johnson wants to do in the short term. He's going to run the ball on anything shorter than 3rd and 8. Everyone knows it, and folks are really struggling to stop the very large Nesbitt.

But again, it's the long term that's interesting. It always comes back to the issue of why would any kid in their right mind ever want to play QB or WR for Johnson? Same for offensive tackles and defensive backs (who don't see a competent passing scheme in practice). So what happens when Nesbitt...their Heisman Candidate leaves?

But back to Johnson and Nesbitt. Consider these red zones

• Inside their own 20 yard line (regardless of down) Nesbitt is 1 for 1 passing.
  
• Inside the opponent's 20 yard line regardless of down, Nesbitt is 0-2 passing

All that said...5 of the guy's 9 completions have gone for 25+ yards.

Against UNC, he was 3 of 4 passing for the game for 76 yards and a TD. Outside of the UNC game, he's 6 of 21 for 124 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT against Kansas and SC State.

GT passing nationally rankings....

• 119th in attempts
  
• 120th in completions
  
• 120th in percentage
  
• 119th in yards
• 93rd in passing TDs

Only Army passes the ball less effectively. Source: CFBstats

The stats are simply amazing. Where's my Heisman ballot?

PWD

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Herschel to Become MMA Fighter

Herschel Walker just inked a deal with the Strikeforce, a MMA league similar to (although less competitive than) UFC, to become a professional ultimate fighter.

On the one hand, Herschel is a sixth-degree blackbelt. On the other hand, he's 47 years old.

I will go in there and test myself against any 20 year old," Walker said. "I know there will be naysayers and I'm fine with that. I want to prove to people who sit on a couch and don't do anything but criticize other people that, if you're a true athlete or martial artist, you're not old until you can't get up and walk around anymore. MMA fighters are said to be some of the best athletes in the world, my plan at the age of 47 is to show the world I am still
one of the best athletes as well.

Herschel will immediately begin an 8-12 week training academy. His first fight will probably be in 2010.

There's no denying the guy is a force of nature and has kept himself in incredible shape. He's been studying martial arts for the better part of three decades, so it's not like he picked some random activity like, say, bobsledding. But he's 47! I guess if anybody can do it, he can. GATA.

If Herschel decides he wants to get into pro wrestling, he could form the GREATEST TAG TEAM IN THE HISTORY OF THE UNIVERSE.

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Wondrous Knowshon Fark

I wish I could attribute this to its rightful creator, but it is brilliant nonetheless:

Well done, fine sir.

Quinton

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Heisman Watch: Moreno and Stafford

First off...let's check out Moreno's highlights from the Central Michigan game:


Let's look at the stats from our two Heisman candidates so far:

Knowshon Moreno
Rushing Yards: 227 yards total / 113.5 per game
Receiving Yards: 83 yards total / 41.5 per game
TDs: 6 total
Pace (13 games): Over 1,300 yards rushing, almost 500 yards receiving and 36 total TDs

Matthew Stafford
Passing Yards: 488 yards total / 244 per game
Completion Percentage: 63.3 percent
TDs: 4
INTs: 0
Pace (13 games): Over 2,900 yards and 24 TDs with a 63 percent completion rate.

See Also
-- ESPN's take on the Heisman race.


PWD

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Knowshon Moreno Fark

This was forwarded to me. No idea who is the original author.

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Knowshon Moreno leaps over defender

That's just how he rolls. One of those individual effort plays that when it happened almost everyone thought, "I was here to see that." Image by Amanda C. Melton on Georgiadogs.com. Click to enlarge the image and buy your copy from Georgiadogs.

Articles about the leap:

-- Knowshon's Leap (3 Photo Angles) - AJC
-- Moreno leaps dawgs to win - AJC
-- Looked like a Heisman Winner - ABH
-- Showstopper - DawgPost

Update: Here's the video:


PWD

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Matthew Stafford Headlines

Image: Hipple
Last night, we linked to a bunch of Moreno headlines. For lunch, we've got Stafford headlines from around the country. Most of the articles are form this weekend.

-- Historic Battleground - ABH
-- At the top of his game - Dallas Morning News
-- Stafford steps up as leader for UGA - Sporting News
-- How does Stafford Measure Up - Dallas Morning News
-- Schedule Reason for Anxiety. Not QB - Knoxville News
-- Striving for Perfection - DawgPost

PWD

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Knowshon Moreno Headlines

Image: Hipple
Some good Knowshon clips from the weekend. The New York Times starts things off with a large feature piece on New Jersey tailback. Also check out this classic photo gallery from the NY Times of pics from his Jersey home, family and high school.

Other Moreno headlines:

-- Long Train Ride was right for Moreno - ABH
-- Cool as Koolata - Hedge Clippings
-- Heisman Odds - Hedge Clippings
-- Moreno as Elder Statesman - David Hale (via WA paper)

PWD

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USAToday Bloggers Look at Knowshon

Tebow's Heisman
USAToday has Moreno among their Top 5 non-QB Heisman Candidates for 2008. I agree with that part. I don't agree with having Ian Johnson on that list. Boise State? I mean seriously. They'll have a legit Heisman candidate the same year I step on the Olympic medal stand.

Otherwise, it's a good list. When you look up and down the Top 25, you don't really see that many non-QB Heisman Candidates.

My guess at the Heisman invitees to NYC (regardless of position):

Tim Tebow
Bennie Wells
Knowshon Moreno
Pat White

I don't think Missouri, Kansas or Texas Tech will do enough in terms of Wins and Losses to get their stars any real consideration, and Bradford at Oklahoma is too far off the Heisman radar right now.

Agree? Disagree?

PWD

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