SEC Conference Predictions....
SEC Champion: LSUNote: I would feel better about this prediction with a more stable QB. Realistically, that's the *only* thing separating this team from the Rose Bowl. It's not like they don't have the talent. Jamarcus Russell should improve from his up and down first season. The decision by Les Miles to keep Jimbo Fisher as his Offensive Coordinator is the sole reason I'm overcoming my fear of their QBs to make this pick.
SEC East1. UT - 6-2/9-2
Notes: The Vols don't have
the schedule or the Offensive Coordinator to finish in the Top 5 as some preseason pubs suggest. I think they lose to LSU and lose one more between UGA (home), UF (road) and Bama (road). BTW - this schedule is ridiculous. They play at UF, at LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia, at Alabama, South Carolina and at Notre Dame with only 1 off week in the middle. Brutal.
[Photo: Ainge is possibly the best young QB in football. Yet Fulmer is actually giving thought to starting Claussen. Sadly for UGA, he will snap out of that lunatic idea too soon to help us much.]2. UGA - 6-2/9-2
Notes: UGA needs two things to win the SEC. Consistent play from Shockley and as few injuries as possible on defense. I don't think we'll get enough of either to win it all, but we have the talent. Specifically, I don't like our chances in Knoxville. Thus, I think we lose the tie breaker with the Vols. I figure we split with the Gators and Auburn.
[Photo: Thomas Brown leads a big time UGA rushing attack.]3. UF - 6-2/8-3
Notes: Urban Meyer's system is complex. It's nothing like what the Gators were running previously. Yet, somehow they are going to run this brand new system at a championship level right out of the gate? I can't see it.
Kirk Herbstreit said on 790theZone in Atlanta last week, that he felt that 80% of the Gators have bought into what Meyer is selling. He went on to say that if the Gators beat UT in week 2 that the entire team could buy-in and tear a hole in the SEC. I understand that logic, and he makes a compelling point. But even if you buy-in, does it compensate for a DL that was manhandled vs the run last year by UGA, UT and Miss State? Does it compensate for learning a brand new system on both sides of the ball? This is a team poised for big things in 2006. Not 2005.
[Photo: Urban Meyer looks over his shoulder for the Ghost of Steve Spurrier...who will begin stalking him with the first loss.]4. SC - 3-5/6-5
Notes: Spurrier has experienced 40% roster turnover since last season. Blake Mitchell is his QB. So there's problems #1 and #2. He also has 3 true freshmen battling for starting RB position. The good news is that there is serious talent other areas. The OL is solid and Ko Simpson is possibly the best Safety in college football this year. Still, the schedule includes games at UGA, at Auburn, at Tennessee, at Arkansas and he gets Clemson, Florida and Alabama at home. If Holtz was still there, this would be a 4-7 team at best. Steve will turn it around quickly. But not this year. 7-4 would be outstanding.
[Photo Above: Spurrier says Blake Mitchell is 'this far' from being almost mediocre at quarterback if he keeps working hard.]5. UK = Bad Times
Notes: Rich Brooks won't make it through the season. Petrino loves to hang big numbers on UK. After Week 1, Brooks will be living on borrowed time. I think it was Barnhardt or Herbsteit that recently said "Not only are they losing, but they definitely have less talent now then when Brooks got there."
[Photo: UK fans who are still reading, I present you with a gratuitous basketball photo to numb your pain.]6. Vandy - They don't care. Should I?
Notes: They could finished 5th in the SEC.
Steve Martin is a wacky guy, but a lousy ball coach.
SEC West1. LSU 7-1/10-1
Notes: See above. They could slip up, but not more than once. And even if they do slip up twice, they get Auburn at home. That game will be for the SEC West. LSU wins that and the tie breaker.
[Photo: LSU's defense, running game and overall raw talent are strong enough to offset many first year mistakes by Miles]2. Auburn 5-3/8-3
Notes: Tuberville recently said that this is his most talented team to date. He certainly loves to hear himself talk. Replacing 4 first round draft picks and a defensive coordinator generally doesn't lead most coaches to heap additional expectations on their own team. The schedule is certainly in their favor. Their outstanding OL should maul GT's DL in Game 1. After that no horrifying game until Oct. 22nd vs LSU (road). But a true RB must emerge for them to win the West. I've seen Kenny Irons run. He is *not* a first team SEC back. And neither is Tre Smith. I see losses to UGA, LSU and one more (Bama? SC?)
[Photo Above: New NCAA 2006 game comes with special "Auburn Feature"]3. Alabama - 5-3/8-3
I have to be honest. I think Shula is an idiot. He is in over his head in the worst way. In the interest of full-disclosure I should also admit that I grew up a Bama fan. My preview starts as everyone's does..."If Brodie can stay healthy." It's a big if. If he does, then this ranking is too low. The skill positions are upgraded and the talent is better overall than last year. Kines has done wonders with this defense which is shocking given his tenure at UGA was so filled with mediocrity. Other than LSU, I don't see a game that I would say is a definite loss with a healthy Brodie. This is the most unpredictable team in the SEC. 4-7 or 9-2. Nothing would shock me.
[Photo: No lead is safe with Shula as coach. Sadly, I'm referring to Alabama leads.]4. Arkansas - 4-4/6-5
After 44 amazing years as the Quarterback of the Razorbacks, Matt Jones has finally moved on. Robert Johnson is not an upgrade unless we're talking about
Blues Men. That said, after playing at Southern Cal, nothing will scare these guys. I see wins vs. Ole Miss, Vandy and MSU. They have to win one more vs. Bama (road) or SC (home) to go bowling. If the SC game is in Little Rock, it's a lock win.
[Photo: Matt Jones had fond memories of his role in 1969 game with Texas. But alas it was finally time for him to move on to the NFL.]5. Ole Miss - 3-5/5-6
I don't care if Coach O takes of his shirt, his pants and his socks in his next
locker room speech. This team simply isn't man enough or talented enough to compete in the SEC. Memphis or Wyoming will take these guys out early, which will likely cause Orgeron to spontaneously combust. I also like Miss State's chances in the Egg Bowl. Luckily, these guys get Vandy and UK. They will win 1 they shouldn't or beat MSU. Home for the holidays. Again.
[Photo Above: Coach Orgeron from Ole Miss can't play Defensive Tackle himself. So they are screwed.]6. Miss State - 2-6/5-6
I believe in Sylvester Croom. However, Jackie Sherrill left this guy without a pot to piss in and NCAA sanctions looming to further hamper recruiting. I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt vs. Houston. Much like last year's victory over UF, they will again take out someone they shouldn't. When you've got a running game like they do, that happens. The Egg Bowl will be for 5th place in the West.
[Photo: As Veruca Salt, patron saint of Mississippi, learned sometimes a golden egg can be more hassle than it's worth]All predictions are subject to change and be wrong without notice.
Thoughts? Insults?
Posted by Paulwesterdawg for the Georgia Sports Blog.
