Reasons for hope: Alabama

1. Despite the rain, we can move the ball through the air. Too much is made of rain=can't throw. In reality, rain helps the offense in passing situations because the recievers already know where they are going, which way they are going to cut, and how the play should develop. Yes, there is an added challenge of catching the wet ball, but that isn't nearly as important as getting open/having room to run if the ball is caught in the first place.
2. We have the TEs to exploit their upfield rush. Alabama is going to make us throw. I'm cool with that: "Georgia’s got a fine offensive line, bookended by senior tackles John Theus and Kolton Houston,but they will be tested by this pass rush. Georgia does have a significant edge on passing downs, as the Tide defense at times still seems to struggle on third downs." To boot, we know we can go deep a couple of times.
3. We are now a quick read team. That is what Alabama struggles with, especially when they have to defend a team that is competent at the quick slant and has RBs that can run competent pass routes.
4. If you are going to run on Alabama, you do it on the edges. This is why I think Sony Michel is more of a key to this game than Nick Chubb. I think Chubb gets 20 carries. At least. I also think to win, Michel has to touch the ball 15 or so times, with a nice mix of rushes and catching passes. For my money, run a wheel route with Michel. That should be money all day.

Look, I'm not saying Alabama is a bad team. Far from it. I'm saying Georgia is a good team. And is both talented enough and well prepared enough to win tomorrow. I realize that sounds provocative and wacky to some people, but there it is.

One last thing: I believe what happened against UL-Monroe and Vandy (especially in the first half) with Lambert is a direct result of our game plan. We were intentionally static and predicable. That is not the offense Brian Schottenheimer will run the rest of this season. 

TW

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Indoor Practice Facility approved

BREAKING: The UGA Athletic Board has approved the plan for a new Indoor Athletic Facility. >> http://t.co/8n7BS32G7A pic.twitter.com/YihSwXOXks

— Georgia Bulldogs (@UGAAthletics) August 31, 2015

Renderings are for demonstration purposes only.
T

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Profiles in Hope: Malcolm Mitchell

That's Mitchell in 2012 making stuff happen. If you don't think a healthy Mitchell changes the math for what defenses have to do against Georgia's offense, then watch this again. Perfect route, perfect speed, patience in the open field, burst of speed to the end zone.

T

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Advanced stats don't lie....UGA projected 3rd in S&P+

Bill Connelly expresses surprise at UGA being there...

The most surprising teams in the top 10: Georgia, Ole Miss, and UCLA. Well, Georgia being third is surprising. I included each set of rankings so you could understand what the numbers see. Georgia has been one of the most consistently awesome teams in the country (fourth in weighted five-year history) and benefits from that here.

I can't say I disagree with him, though we did well in his stats last year. In fact, UGA was easily the most confusing team for him to figure out last year, something he mentioned on more than one occasion. Based on his stats, Georgia will be a favorite in every game they play this year, save two, Alabama and Auburn.

The top ten:

Without further adieu, here are the 2015 projections. Analysis below the table.

	Conf	Proj. S&P+	Rk	2014 Rk	Proj. change	5-year performance	Returning starters impact	Recruiting impact
Alabama	SEC	24.4	1	2	1	1	4	1
Ohio State	Big Ten	24.0	2	1	-1	2	1	9
Georgia	SEC	20.9	3	7	4	4	7	10
Oregon	Pac-12	20.5	4	3	-1	3	6	23
Auburn	SEC	19.5	5	4	-1	6	8	5
Ole Miss	SEC	18.2	6	6	0	14	2	21
UCLA	Pac-12	18.0	7	9	2	22	5	4
LSU	SEC	17.9	8	16	8	10	11	7
Michigan State	Big Ten	17.2	9	11	2	8	13	22
Oklahoma	Big 12	17.0	10	13	3	12	15	16

This is a predictor of what will happen, it is, especially in May, a look at what should happen.  Don't book flights to Arizona yet.

TD

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Profiles in Hope: Defensive talent and coaching

I'll start with this: Depressive Tyler isn't dead. He's possibly on life support, but not dead. One of the things I've worked on with myself this offseason is being deluded by coach speak and kool aid quotes into clouding my judgement on the 2014 Georgia Bulldogs. In that vein, I'm still panicky about our defensive backfield.

Still, we have Swann and all those talented youngsters. It helps me feel better that we are facing a first year starter in Stoudt, with several new offensive linemen and receivers. And skill players. Depending on how we look Saturday, I reserve the right to panic about South Carolina, but right now, I have to think Morris is going to look at establishing confidence early before he brings his full arsenal out.

Will the secondary be a hot mess at times, especially early? Yeah, of course. Will it improve? Yes. That is more than hindsight gives us from last year.

That leads me to our front seven. I am excited about our front seven. A bunch.

I'm salivating over watching what Leonard Floyd and Lorenzo Carter do this year. When you add in the quicker interior linemen and giving Jordan Jenkins direction, instead of simply having him run towards the QB, I'm positively giddy. Then we have all that depth at every position. So much depth that the SEC's leading tackler from last season is not starting.

I still have trouble getting my head around is what is going on with Ramik Wilson. It is hard to fathom he's said or done something to piss the coaches off. Hell, we sent him to Birmingham for media days. I hope his injury or whatever is getting worked out, because as much as I like Tim Kimbrough's athleticism, he's still a Sophomore starting over the returning leading tackler in the SEC.

Still, I don't think our coaches want to lose to make a point with a player, so I'm forced to trust two things:

1. If Ramik is healthy, he'll play.
2. Jeremy Pruitt is doing what he thinks is best for the defense.

Pruitt has some rings that are a pretty strong indication that he knows what he is doing, as well as the statistics from those teams to back it up. He wasn't joking about it being an open competition. If Ramik has been beaten out, it is a good sign for the defense because it means we have a player that has shown in a head to head competition that he is better than Ramik, at least as of this posting. It also means this defense, especially the front seven, is scary good.

For the record, I think Ramik plays tomorrow. And I think 20+ guys will get significant game minutes, not just giving starters a breather but because certain packages leverage their skill more than other players' skill. Seeing us let loose on a young offensive line, a new starting QB, and young RBs has me pretty jazzed.

TD

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Profiles in Hope: Offensive philosophy

I'm on record thinking we have installed some new offensive formations and plays. One of the things I think we'll see Saturday is some variation on the spread, probably like Urban Meyer's version, but with less QB running. Think Chris Leak in 2006.

In 2006, the Gators leveraged two effective running backs in Deshawn Wynn and Tim Tebow with Chris Leaks' accuracy (and Dallas Baker/Andre Caldwell catching) to....be competent offensively. Neither Wynn nor Tebow are the running back Todd Gurley is. In fact, I'd put Keith Marshall in front of them, too. Florida won the national championship with a tough defense and an offense that allowed them to score enough points to win.

I'd be willing to grant we don't have the receivers Florida had in 2006. Until Hutson Mason has a coming out game, I am compelled to say Chris Leak is a better QB, but I think that is close, especially for what I think we are going to ask Mason to do. More importantly, we have two TEs that will help Mason the way Cornelius Ingram did Chris Leak. And the way Hernandez did later for Urban Meyers' offenses. In fact, outside of the QB running the ball, I'd say we could have very similar offenses.

The one wild card is receivers. Meyer's offenses are predicated on defensive backs making tough choices on run support vs. covering short route zone flood, cross routes, and quick hooks from WRs/TE/RBs vs. WR(s) streaking deep. Mason doesn't have to be perfect if we have a WR open behind coverage. The tough part right now is the lack of a true known quantity in that role. Maybe Reggie Davis is that guy. He has the speed for it, but as a true Freshman, that remains to be seen.

As I mentioned, Todd Gurley alone is reason to have hope for this season. If we've also retooled the offense to put Mason into higher percentage pass situations and leverage our TEs as a runner/blocker/receiver threat while making defenses have to defend more of the field accounting for Gurley (or Marshall/Chubb/Michel), that is a really good reason to be excited.
TD

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Profiles in hope: Todd Gurley

I'm not saying I'm over Depressive Tyler, but I did some thoughtful reflection on the offensive changes we've seen this off season:

• No full back listed on the depth chart.
• Implementing the Hback.
• The way the offensive line is coming together.

And I think we have retooled the offense to focus on leveraging Todd Gurley's abilities. Think what we did in the overtimes against Georgia Tech. Gurley, Gurley, Gurley TD. Gurley TD. We did it out of several looks, including some spread packages.

The 25 yard TD run to seal the win was out of the pistol, with Chris Burnette pulling to seal the lane for Gurley.

(Image: Jim Hipple)

Why did that work? Because 41 of Georgia's 70 plays to that point were pass plays, including 25+  times in the second half.. It was the smart money after Gurley had gotten the ball three straight times in the first overtime possession that Bobo would call a play action. But he didn't, and Georgia won.

Georgia won because it found getting the ball in the hands of their best player, the best player on the field, was a winning play. 

What does that mean for 2014 Georgia football? I think we'll see the return of the David Greene pass game, with plenty of short to medium zone floods and misdirection plays to get guys open underneath. Hutson Mason has the ability to run that passing game, especially if the offensive line is in the place we keep hearing they are (granting we heard the same last year). We have the receivers in Conley and Bennett to run the middle cross and side line fades. Mason has worked with Mike Bobo for five years now, and Bobo is one of the best at developing QBs and finding ways to help them succeed.

Which gets me back to Todd Gurley.

In 2009, we had Joe Cox as our QB. We had Washaun Ealey, Richard Samuel, and Caleb King as our three headed rushing attack. I think we have four or five RBs on our team now that would start over all three of them, provided 2014 Richt, instead of Fair Bryant, is the HC.  I believe Hutson Mason is better than Joe Cox. But most importantly, I believe Todd Gurley is a difference maker, both from a performance standpoint, and what defenses have to do to adjust to his ability running and catching the ball.

Which leads me to my prior observation about Mason and how our passing offense will look like it did when David Greene was playing. Give David Greene Huston Mason's Offensive Coordinator and Todd Gurley. Do you think things would have turned out a bit differently in 2004? 

I do.

TD

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Profiles in Hope: Hoops Personnel and Schedule

The schedule will be dramatically tougher next year for Coach Fox's team in the non-conference as we mentioned the other day.  We get Colorado (home), Preseason NIT (2 home/2 neutral), Seton Hall at home, GT on the road and UTC on the road.

I believe we'll probably go around 10-3 against that slate.  That's a loss to Colorado at home, a loss to Tech (because that's what Fox does) and a loss in the preseason NIT.  That's a net improvement of about 4 wins the non-conference slate.

Part of that optimism revolves around the emergence of Marcus Thornton.  Consider Marcus' stats before and after SEC play this year.

Marcus Thornton	Minutes	Points	Reb	Blocks
SEC Games	28.1	8.9	7.1	1.7
OCC Games	21.5	6.7	4.6	0.8

Also, consider Kenny Gaines before and after SEC play started with particular emphasis on the final nine SEC games (including the tournament).

Kenny Gaines	Minutes	Points	Reb	T.O.
Final 9 SEC Games	28.5	17.2	1.8	0.8
SEC Games	29.6	14.5	2.5	1.1
OCC Games	25.8	11.5	2.2	1.2

Charles Mann also improved as did JJ Frazier.  It seemed like Nemi regressed a bit, but I don't think it's something to worry about.

In SEC play, we should get UF, UT and UK at home; however, we'll have to face at least one of them more than once next year.  Regardless, we have the chance to win 10-11 games in SEC play next year.

If we end up at 20-22 wins in the regular season, we'll be on the NCAA bubble going into the SEC tourney. If Fox wants more than that, he's going to need to find a legit post player to replace Donte Williams.

Interestingly, Temple's starting big man Anthony Lee (6'9" and 250 lbs) has announced he is leaving Temple for his senior year and will be eligible immediately elsewhere (aka the Russell Wilson rule).  He averaged almost 14 points and 9 rebounds per game for Temple last season.  That kind of presence would revolutionize our roster.  We are reportedly pursuing him, and we apparently recruited him out of high school.  However, we're a long shot.  Half the teams in Div 1 need a guy of his skill set and size.

Still...something to watch.

PWD

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Profiles in Hope: David Gibbs DC Candidate

By Paul Westerdawg

This article isn't campaigning for David Gibbs, but last night I researched the guy and liked what I saw.  Let's start with his personal story:

• Son of Alex Gibbs, famous OL coach
• Former resident of Auburn, AL
• Attended the University of Colorado
• Coached for 20+ years.  10 in the NFL, 9 in college and 1 semi-pro
• 4 years as Champ Bailey's DB coach in Denver
• 6 years as a college DC
• 1 year as DC of Auburn (2005)
• 1 year as DC of the Houston Cougars (2013)

In 2013, he inherited a defense which allowed 36 points per game, and he cut that total in one year to 21.8 points per game.  In other words, he fielded a Top 20 scoring defense one year removed from the Cougars finishing 110th in the nation in scoring D.

In his first year, he trimmed almost a full yard per carry off the run defense, and his troops allowed 10 less passing TDs this year.  Other stats from his 2013 defense include:

• Scoring Defense: 20th in the Nation
• Total Defense: 80th
• Rush Defense: 44th
• Passes Defensed: 7th
• Interceptions: SECOND
• Fumbles Forced: FIFTH
• Fumbles recovered: FIRST
• Opponents 3rd Down conversion: 24th

The biggest problem his defense had was on long passing plays.  For instance, they only allowed 6 completions against Vandy in their bowl game; however, two of those passes were 50 yard TD completions. Overall, the pass defense yardage numbers are bad this year, but the passing TDs and other passing turnover stats are good to exceptional.

Considering they had two sophomore safeties and considering where they were the prior year that's still a massive, massive leap  That leap, his team's ability to produce turnovers, and his history as a DB coach is likely why the Dawgs are rumored to have already spoken with him.

See Also:

• Post Grantham Thoughts -- Blutarsky

PWD

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Glimmers of hope: South Carolina

Connor Shaw didn't look particularly good throwing the ball last week. He got nearly half of his passing yards on one play. He was 11/20. The Gamecocks only had one sustained scoring drive, although the also drove a touch over 50 yards, but still scored on a 30 yd TD pass from Dylan Thompson.

Boy, it'd be nice to have Spurrier pulling his QB in this one for Thompson. Then having him pull that one and going back to Shaw.

Also, their punter only averaged 33ypk on 5 punts. One was pooch kick, but he also had a steady stream 40 yarders. That is something to watch, too.

TD

PS. Did you know Marcus Lattimore isn't there anymore?

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Clemson: Why we can win

Well, stuff like this:

Go to 1:17. (Or go here for a better vid)

The conventional wisdom is that we will have a #MACtion like score fest come Saturday night. That may well be the case. We know UGA can score from all over. The real concern Clemson has to have will be if we play like it is the seventh game of the season instead of the first, at least from a game planning standpoint.

If we come out with the full playbook and make Clemson's secondary chose stopping the run or deep cover help with Murray making checkoffs, then Clemson is in a world of hurt.

One other thing, even if our defense is walking wounded and guys that haven't practiced enough, Clemson can be made to be a one trick pony. South Carolina has given us a template in keeping Boyd in check. Against the Gamecocks, Boyd is a combined 22 of 53 for 266 yards, 2TDs, 3 Ints. Rushing he has 28 attempt for 3 net yards. He's been sacked by them 11 times. They did it by bringing rushers in and collapsing the pocket on Boyd and keeping a greendog on him at all times. That and keeping those WRs from getting quick outs and open deep.

Now, we don't have Clowney out there who is going to demand double or triple teams, but we do have speed at DE, LB and S, even with injuries. If we force Boyd into making bad decisions early, it will be a very fun night.

TD

PS. Any Clemson fan out there want to mention the comeback on LSU, let me be sure you understand the vast differences in our QB, TBs, and coaches. You might get the ball back once, but you are going to have to stop any combination of TB and FB runs/passes, plus TE/FB screens. You won't see three Murray passes in the boundary or sidelines IF we need to kill the clock. If Murray is throwing the ball deeper than five yards, it'll be to Conley, Mitchell, or Scott-Wesley running deep. Or you could see the play above or 344-Fullback or a play action jet to Marshall.

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Quayvon Hicks stepping into the fullback role

“We still like to run the ball in a physical way,” Richt said. “There’s a lot of great runs with a lead blocker. These fullbacks, they earn their keep.”

With that, we are off to the fullback races. With ten starters returning on offense, the only one that is up in the air is fullback. At the end of last season, Ogletree stepped in and took over when Hall went down in the Florida game. Hicks was out with a concussion and didn't make the trip to Jacksonville.

One thing Hicks brings that we saw out of Ogletree is the ability to catch the ball. While Hicks was a defensive star at Pierce County, he also often lined up at tight end in Pierce County's run first offense. That put him in position to catch a few balls.

Of course, the highest praise any running back can receive from Richt is about blocking:

“Quayvon never had a problem with wanting to hit somebody, never had a problem with contact. But knowing who to hit or placement, it’s so crucial,” Richt said. “Not only do you need to know who to block but you need to know what kind of leverage. Are you trying to get the right edge of that guy, the left edge of that guy. There’s a lot of technique that goes beyond knowing who to hit.”

If Hicks is being technical enough, his physical presence is enough to get him on the field plenty. Ad in his go hit somebody mentality, it'll be interesting to see him get some goal line carries or see 344-Fullback called for him, something I'm sure Blutarsky would approve of. You put Hicks at 6-2 and 260, Lynch at 6-5 and 255, or Rome at 6-6 and 255 with the ball in space, you are asking cornerbacks and safeties to bring down players that have anywhere from 20 to 70 pounds on them.

That is quite the mismatch.

TD

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Thanks for the Memories

Where does the time go? We would be remiss if we let Coach Michael Adams' retirement go unnoticed.  We had some good times together. Like this, and this, and this and this and this and this. Best wishes for a robust retirement.

The bow tie can also retire from holding his foreskin down.
Now, our eyes turn to the future. Thirteen months ago, a search committee was named to replace Il Duce. Executive search firm R. William Funk and Associates, Dallas, Texas was brought on to help identify candidates.  Given the nearly seven billion people on planet earth, it was truly a daunting task.  Improbably, out of all the people in all the world, the best only qualified candidate was just across the quad, toiling in obscurity.  So, congratulations to the new No. 2 Mr. Jere Morehead on first day as president of UGA.

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They were lead by 2 freshmen running backs

#1 Florida vs. #17 Georgia
1985 World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party



God Bless America

Go Dawgs.

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The Wide Receivers

Someone tell me why we need to be worried about the receivers. I want more than "Bobo will screw this up" or "We don't use receivers well" or "START HUDSON MASON."

Just looking over last year's stats, I feel pretty good about the receivers returning with more than 10/ypg from last year (stats from Georgiadogs.com):

RECEIVING            GP-GS  No.  Yds   Avg  TD Long Avg/G
---------------------------------------------------------
Tavarres King        14-13   47  705  15.0   8   80  50.4
Malcolm Mitchell     11-9    45  665  14.8   4   71  60.5
Orson Charles        14-14   45  574  12.8   5   36  41.0
Michael Bennett      14-4    32  320  10.0   5   27  22.9
Chris Conley         11-0    16  288  18.0   2   47  26.2
Marlon Brown         12-5    15  234  15.6   3   75  19.5

Tavarres King On the Move (Image: Hipple)

If our source of concern is Malcom Mitchell not knowing the new plays, fine. The old plays worked pretty well. By my count, we are returning 181 of Georgia's 257 receptions. That's 70%. Last year we returned only about 45%. Tavarres King has 94 receptions, 1652 yards, and 12 TDs in his career. I'd not be surprised to see him end up with 55+ receptions this season and threaten Terrence Edwards' season receiving record (1004 yards).

Now, is it optimal to have 45 receptions and our top average/game receiver playing both ways? No, of course not. Will it give me pause, especially if we have a sloppy ass passing game against Buffalo? You bet.

When you think about Boykin and Smith's 10 receptions last year, plus the dynamic things you can do with them otherwise,  having Mitchell step in as another change of pace type of play-maker makes sense. It is doubly so when you consider he may well be in the top three corner backs on the team when this experiment reaches it's conclusion.

If we are looking good offensively and he pans out as a DB, I don't see him moving back to the offense.

TD
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Edit note:  Blutarsky kindly responds.

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Profiles in Hope: UGA Hoops 2012-2013

I want to share a statistic that I found surprising. Over the past 10 SEC games, Mark Fox's team is 5-5. Given the 1-7 start to the year, that's significant improvement. Was the team slow to start putting it together? Certainly, but they did find their legs later in the year.

The Dawgs had several solid RPI wins including:

• Florida (H) - RPI 26
  
• Notre Dame (N) - RPI 38
  
• Miss State (A) - RPI 74
  
• Miss State (N) - RPI 74
  
• Tennessee (H) - RPI 85
• S. Dakota St (H) - RPI 50 (although I feel dirty listing this one)
  

The reason the Dawgs won't be playing in a Tier 2 or Tier 3 tourney would be the debacles against South Carolina and Auburn. Some of that was a function of youth inside and some of it was a function of depth. The other reason would be the five games in which they scored less than 50 points.

The roster will be more athletic next year with the addition of Charles Mann, Kenny Gaines and Brandon Morris. The interior will be stronger with the maturing of Donte Williams and Nemi. Florevous also has the physical capabilities to make a significant year over year jump as Donte did this year. That's the good news.

Will it be enough to make the NCAA Tourney? Not unless Tony Parker wants to hug his mother very, very badly. As Coach Fox told him, "You can't hug your mother through a phone." So...here's hoping for hugs.

I do see rays of hope / opportunities for improvement next year due to the way the roster improved during the year. The challenge for Fox...the team could improve considerably next year than the record without the record reflecting it. The team faces the following schedule:

2 additional SEC games (Missouri and Texas A&M)
2 games against Indiana, UCLA or G'town in Brooklyn
1 Big East team on the road (SEC/Big East Challenge)
1 game vs. GT on the road
1 game vs. Southern Cal at home

That only leaves 7 tomato can games. When I was in school, Coach Durham would schedule 10-12 tomato cans a year.

On the bright side, it's a schedule that could put UGA into the NCAAs with as few as 18 wins. That would require UGA going 9-9 in a tougher SEC while sweeping the buy games and picking up 2 wins against that non-conference slate with USC, GT and UCLA being the best opportunities.

My overall feeling on the program is that Coach Fox is doing an average to above average job targeting the wings and guards for his style of play. Kentavious is as advertised, and Charles Mann and Kenny Gaines could both be underrated gems. The problem is his big man recruiting. He needs to onboard players who don't take 2-3 years to find their way in this league.

But I digress. Here's what I think it would take for the program to make a big leap forward beyond the obvious need to sign Tony Parker.

1. John Florveous needs to make a gigantic Year 2 move up the depth chart. If he could make an improvement like Donte and Travis Leslie made in Year 2, we could move Donte Williams to PF which would elevate his game.

2. Someone will have to step up at PG. I personally can't see it being Vinnie. So, this terrifies me for next year. If Charles Mann can be a 25+ minute per game stable solution at PG, I would feel much better about our chances.

3. Either KCP will need to add 15 lbs of muscle or Brandon Morris will need to emerge at SF. If KCP were at SG, he would face much better matchups offensively and defensively next season. If he stays at SF, he's got to get stronger.

What are your thoughts?

PWD

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Georgia and LSU Comparisons

After doing the comparison of Arkansas and Georgia to prove a point, I decided to see how the six common opponents between Georgia and LSU matched up.

Team	LSU Result	UGA Result	LSU Off/Def	UGA Off/Def
Auburn	45-10	45-7	393/248	528/195
Ole Miss	52-3	27-13	458/195	475/183
Florida	41-11	24-20	453/213	354/226
Kentucky	35-7	19-10	348/155	317/165
Tennessee	38-7	20-12	383/239	366/269
Mississippi State	19-6	24-10	361/193	315/213

So, with the exception of Mississippi State, LSU routinely blew out the common opponents. Looking at the yardage, though, it was much more evenly matched:

LSU Offensive Yardage: 399.3
LSU Defensive Yardage: 207.2
LSU Differential: + 192.1

UGA Offensive Yardage: 392.5
UGA Defensive Yardage: 208.5
UGA Differential: +184

The difference? A little of this and a little of that. Some special teams and defensive scores. Some awesome field field position, due to opportunistic defense, as well as strong punt and kick returns. Some facing depleted offenses at the right time, specifically Florida. As for the lower scores for Georgia in those games, certainly you can look at the offensive philosophy when we have a lead.

I don't know if there is anything I can take away from this, other than I think this game, on paper, is much closer to a push than 13.5 points.

What are your thoughts?

TD

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Arkansas Compared to Georgia

One thing that has stuck with me this week is the obvious comparison between the SEC's two 10-2 teams. Both lost to very good teams. So, is it enough to say Arkansas dominated one of the teams Georgia lost to and be done with it? No. Not at all.

True, Arkansas dominated the Gamecocks, but that was South Carolina's second game without Lattimore. Furthermore, when you look at the other head to heads, the picture is very different. Georgia and Arkansas faced six common opponents:

Team	Ark Result	UGA Result	Ark Off/Def	UGA Off/Def
Auburn	38-14	45-7	438/395	528/195
Ole Miss	29-24	27-13	438/370	475/183
Vandy	31-28	33-28	388/462	443/348
South Carolina	44-28	42-45	435/207	436/395
Tennessee	49-7	20-12	499/376	366/269
Mississippi State	44-17	24-10	539/211	315/213

If you are keeping score at home, this is very, very close. Arkansas gained about 30 more yards per game. Georgia held the common opponents to nearly 70 yards per game less than Arkansas did.  Both teams nearly lost to Vandy in Nashville.

One thing that keeps jumping out at me is the same thing we all have been harping on.  Georgia lost to South Carolina thanks to the unholy trifecta of Interception/Fumble/Fat Guy Fake Punt touchdowns. If any one of those three don't happen, Georgia wins. If Georgia wins South Carolina, there is a strong likelihood we'd not only be having a Game of the Century of the Week discussion, it is possible this would be for a berth in the national championship game. We allow any of those Saturday, it'll be Orlando or worse for the bowl.

To put it another way, if Vandy doesn't allow a 94 yard fumble return for a TD or could hit a field goal on October 29th, the whole Arkansas is way better than Georgia conversation is laughable.

It seems apparent to me that with Arkansas' schedule, Georgia would be no worse than 9-3, and more likely at least 10-2. We certainly belong in the best of the rest conversation. We'll find out Saturday if we might belong somewhere above that.

But if your argument is Arkansas beat South Carolina and Georgia couldn't, just know how dumb that sounds when you look at the match ups.
TD

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About Rodney Garner

I have privately held deep concerns about Coach Rodney Garner's results on the field the past few years. I've kept almost all of those concerns off the blog because Garner is such a lightening rod for a subset of fans of a variety of reasons.

With all of that said...Rodney Garner coached his ass off this year. We have our best defensive line since 2004, and it's not just a talent upgrade. Our guys are playing the position with great technique and fire.

If you're going to bitch about a guy. You gotta step up and admit when he's doing a great job. Thus, this post.

PWD

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About the LSU game

I really don't know what to say other than:

1. LSU is extremely good.
2. LSU is extremely battle tested.
3. We have a chance.

For my money, this is the best defense we'll have faced since at least the 2003 SEC Title game. You may have to go back to Bama in '92 to find an SEC Defense with this much talent playing at such a high level.

If our offensive line can give Murray and Crowell the daylight to make plays, we have a shot. If not, the 13 point spread will hold up. LSU's quarterbacks can make the negative plays to give us an opening. The offensive line just has to hold up enough to let us walk through that door.

As Coach Brooks said in Miracle, if we had to play them 10 times...they might win 9. Will Saturday be that 1 game? Hopefully.

PWD

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